What ifs are often something people use to weigh what would have happened had something different happened in history. There are a few what ifs I'll be blogging over the next few weeks but today I want to discuss this one and what would have happened had John Efford won the Liberal leadership in 2001 (Remmeber he only lost by 14 votes).
First things first you have to address the rumours that had Efford won the leadership there would have been a mass exodus out of the Liberal caucus either towards resigning from politics or joining the PC's as that party was coming back and had the extra bump of 2 by-election wins that week and Danny Williams being acclaimed as party leader that week. With that in mind, let's look at the Liberal caucus on February 13 2001 (When Grimes was swore in as premier) and what they would have done had Efford been premier instead of Grimes:
Eddie Joyce (Bay Of Islands): Joyce was always known as a party man. He supported Grimes in the leadership but he's also known for stepping aside after being elected in 1989 so that Clyde Wells could have a seat in the House of Assembly. I think Joyce would have reluctanly sat in a John Efford led caucus.
Percy Barrett (Bellevue): Barrett supported Grimes in the leadership race. Barrett had been a parlimanetary secretary to the premier and education in the year so you have to think he would have become a cabinet minister soon (Which he did under Grimes), I have to think Barrett would have resigned as his guy didn't win the leadership and he had been a MHA for over 10 years at that point.
Beaton Tulk (Bonavista North): Tulk served as acting premier during the leadership run. He supported Grimes during the leadership run and did resign to go federal in 2002. I think he would have followed that same plan had Efford won the leadership.
Kelvin Parsons (Burgeo Lapoile): Parsons was the justice minister at this point and a Grimes supporter, before entering politics he was known as a PC and even tried to get his son to run for the PC's in a byelection provided Kelvin got a spot on the supreme court. Though Burgeo Lapoile was historically Liberal I can see Parsons crossing the floor to sit with the PC party.
Mary Hodder (Burin Placentia West): She supported Efford from the start, while she was percieved as being a weak MHA I think she would have went into Efford's cabinet.
George Sweeney (Carbonear Hr.Grace): Sweeney was only a rookie MHA at this point, Carbonear Hr.Grace and Port De Grave where neighbouring districts so Sweeney, who supported Grimes in the leadership, probably would have sat in a John Efford government as Carbonear Hr.Grace and Port De Grave are neighbouring districts.
Yvonne Jones (Cartwright Lanse Au Clair): I can see Jones leaving the Liberal caucus at this time had the person she supported, Grimes, not won the leadership. There where rumours in 2007 that she was thinking of crossing the floor to join the PC's (Which I could never see happening), so I see her probably resigning from the house of assembly had Efford been premier.
Jim Walsh (Conception Bay East Bell Island): Before Brian Tobin made a triumphant return home there was talk that Walsh was going to run for premier, him and Efford's name where brought up. Walsh supported Grimes in the leadership and had been in a tight race in 1999 that said I figure he would have stuck it out in an Efford-led government.
Roger Grimes (Exploits): The Grimes-Efford feud still haunts the Liberal party to this day, I think had Efford won the leadership Grimes would have resigned from provincial politics and probably went federal in the 2002 by-election to replace George Baker.
Oliver Langdon (Fortune Bay La Hune): Langdon supported Grimes but I think he would have stayed in an Efford government. Being that Kelvin Parsons crossed the floor I think you would have seen Langdon get a prime ministerial position in an Efford cabinet to represent the south coast of the province.
Sandra Kelly (Gander): Kelly was never the strongest of ministers and she resigned prior to the 2003 election despite being an MHA for 7 years. She supported Grimes in the leadership, I think Kelly probably would have resigned had Efford been premier.
Judy Foote (Grand Bank): My MHA at the time, Foote was one of Grimes' strongest supporters. I think Foote is a party person so she probably would have stayed on as MHA.
Anna Thistle (Grand Falls Buchans): Thistle supported Grimes in the leadership race, she represented Grimes' neighbouring district and probably would have stayed on as MHA to keep a government MHA in Grand Falls.
Bob Mercer (Humber East): Mercer was an interesting case, he was one of the weaker members in the Liberal government. Despite supporting Grimes in the leadership vote over Paul Dicks in Humber West Mercer was only given the spot of deputy speaker in the House of Assembly. As he was a relatively new member in 2001 I can't see Mercer leaving politics nor can I see him crossing the floor.
Rick Woodford (Humber Valley): Woodford had been an MHA for 16 years at this point and was a former PC, don't know if he would have gone back to the PC's after the leadership race (He supported Grimes), he probably would have stuck around and resigned prior to the 2003 election which is what he did.
Paul Dicks (Humber West): Dicks, along with Efford, famously said that they couldn't serve under Roger Grimes. Dicks though could probably serve under Efford as he went to Efford on the 2nd ballot, I figure Dicks would have become finance minister and deputy premier under John Efford.
Ernie Mclean (Lake Melville): Mclean was also a relatively new MHA at this time, he supported Grimes in the leadership. I think he would have stuck it out in an Efford led government.
Julie Bettney (Mount Pearl): Julie became health minister in the aftermath of the 2001 Liberal leadership vote so judging by that you can gather she was a strong Grimes supporter. Julie always came across to me as being a good party person though and she probably would have stayed in an Efford government.
Gerald Smith (Port Au Port): Like Percy Barrett Smith got his first cabinet experience under Roger Grimes, also like Barrett Smith could be seen by many as a middleweight type politician unlike Barrett though I can see Smith serving in a John Efford government.
John Efford (Port De Grave): Efford, of course, stepped down in March 2001 as he couldn't serve under Roger Grimes, in this scenario Efford is the premier, later in this piece I'll indicate when I think Efford would have called an election.
Kevin Aylward (St.George's Stephenville East): Being that Aylward supported Dicks on the 1st ballot and then Grimes on the 2nd shows you just how much Aylward thought of John Efford. I'm quite willing to bet that Kevin Aylward would have left the government shortly after the 2001 leadership had Efford become premier. As he was Liberal leader in this past fall's election can't see him becoming a PC.
Joan Marie Aylward (St.John's Centre): Another interesting case, since her defeat at the polls in 2003 I've been wondering when not if Aylward would make a return to politics. I can see Aylward sticking it out under Efford despite her support of Grimes.
Lloyd Matthews (St.John's North): Here's another interesting person. Matthews was someone I thought could have ran for the leadership. He was always given high profile positions during his time in government so a run for the Liberal leadership would have been believable. Matthews supported Grimes in the leadership and given the fact his daughter worked in Danny William's office it's quite possible Matthews would have crossed the floor, he resigned in 2003 at 59 but I can see him getting a key spot in a PC cabinet should he crossed the floor and served another term.
Tom Lush (Terra Nova): Lush supported Grimes as well but given the fact he had been in the Liberal party for years I think he would have stuck it out under Efford, he lost to Paul Oram in the 2003 election.
Ralph Wiseman (Topsail): A veteran of the political game in 2001, Wiseman supported Grimes, Wiseman remains active in politics to this day and I think he would have served under Efford.
Lloyd Snow (Trinity Bay De Verde): Snow was another interesting case, he was a MHA for 12 years at this point and was never in cabinet and only speaker. As speaker I think Snow remained neutral in this race and I think it would have been suspicious if he resigned from politics after John Efford became premier or crossed the floor to the PC's.
Ross Wiseman (Trinity North): Wiseman crossed the floor to sit with the PC's that September. He came under a bit of fire being that he had supported Grimes during the leadership. Being that he supported Grimes in the leadership and crossed the floor, I bet if Efford had become premier Ross Wiseman would have crossed the floor almost immediately. He hadn't been in politics at that point a year so I doubt very much he would have resigned from politics.
Gerry Reid (Twillingate Fogo): Reid was a Liberal all his life so I can't see him crossing the floor nor leaving politics under an Efford government despite Reid's support of Grimes.
Walter Noel (Viriginia Waters): Noel was 57 at the time of the Liberal leadership, he supported Grimes in the leadership, Noel has stayed involved with the Liberal party since so he probably wouldn't have crossed the floor. Can't see him resigning either as he ran again in 2003.
So here are the MHA's I see crossing the floor under a John Efford government:
Ross Wiseman, Lloyd Matthews, Kelvin Parsons
Here are the Liberals who I see resigning from the House had John Efford became premier:
Percy Barrett, Beaton Tulk, Yvonne Jones, Roger Grimes, Sandra Kelly, Kevin Aylward
So in turn you would have had a House of Assembly lineup of the following:
Liberal: 21
PC: 19
NDP: 2
Vacancies: 6
So this would have lead to a minority government situation, also with 6 vacancies opening up would Efford call 6 by-elections or wanting to get a new mandate for himself would he go to the polls in 2001? Also what of Danny Williams? What district would he have ran in? If Efford called those 6 by-elections for the spring or summer of 2001 what seat would Danny run in? Remember Humber West is not vacant in this scenario. The open seats where Bellevue (Percy Barrett), Bonavista North (Beaton Tulk), Cartwright Lanse Au Clair (Yvonne Jones), Exploits (Roger Grimes), Gander (Sandra Kelly), and St.George's Stephenville East (Kevin Aylward). I think of those 6 seats Williams would have chose Aylward's old seat, it was relatively urban and close to his political home of Humber West. Also if Efford had called the by-elections we could have seen the very real possibility of the Liberals losing government in the by-elections as 5 of those 6 seats have since gone PC. I don't know if Efford would have risked that which leads us to a general election sometime in 2001.
It would make sense, here you are a new premier you would want a new mandate. Brian Peckford did it in 1979, Tom Rideout did it in 1989 and Brian Tobin did it in 1996. Also the Liberals, while coming off a divisive convention, still had the people's attention and they could have put up a better fight. Efford was considered by many to be a grassroots politician so chances are Efford could have lifted up the party brass and put up a good challenge to Williams. Yes there where 6 people who resigned from politics because of the Efford leadership under this scenario but it could have been spun by Efford and the Liberal party that these people left half way through a mandate.
So let's say that there was a general election in October 2001 and Danny Williams chooses St.George's Stephenville East as his political home, here are my predictions for that fall's election in an Efford vs. Williams battle:
Baie Verte: Paul Shelley (PC)
Bay Of Islands: Eddie Joyce (Liberal)
Bellevue: New Liberal candidate
Bonavista North: New PC candidate (More than likely Harry Harding)
Bonavista South: Roger Fitzgerald (PC)
Burgeo Lapoile: Kelvin Parsons (PC)
Burin Placentia West: Mary Hodder (Liberal)
Cape St.Francis: Jack Byrne (PC)
Carbonear Harbour Grace: George Sweeney (Liberal)
Cartwright Lanse Au Clair: New Liberal candidate
Conception Bay East Bell Island: Jim Walsh (Liberal)
Conception Bay South: Bob French (PC)
Exploits: New PC candidate (More than likely Clayton Forsey)
Ferryland: Loyola Sullivan (PC)
Fortune Bay Cape La Hune: Oliver Langdon (Liberal)
Gander: New PC candidate (More than likely Kevin O'brien)
Grand Bank: Judy Foote (Liberal)
Grand Falls Buchans: Anna Thistle (Liberal)
Hr.Main Whitbourne: Tom Hedderson (PC)
Humber East: Joe Mullins (PC) (Remember it was Mullins who had the PC nomination at first in this district, but he passed away in late-2002; Mullins was quite the person so he would have probably won in a general election)
Humber Valley: Rick Woodford (Liberal)
Humber West: Paul Dicks (Liberal)
Kilbride: Ed Byrne (PC)
Lab West: Randy Collins (NDP)
Lake Melville: New PC candidate (More than likely John Hickey)
Lewisporte: Tom Rideout (PC)
Mount Pearl: Dave Denine (PC)
Placentia St.Mary's: Fabian Manning (PC)
Port Au Port: Joan Burke (PC) Joan would run here as Danny was running in St.George's Stephenville East and this is her neighbouring riding.
Port De Grave: John Efford (Liberal)
St.Barbe: Wally Young (PC)
St.George's Stephenville East: Danny Williams (PC)
St.John's Centre: Paul Brown (PC) (Remember Brown originally had the PC nomination in SJC in 2003 but backed out that summer due to personal reasons)
St.John's East: John Ottenheimer (PC)
St.John's North: Lloyd Matthews (PC)
St.John's South: Tom Osborne (PC)
St.John's West: Sheila Osborne (PC)
Signal Hill Quidi Vidi: Jack Harris (NDP)
Terra Nova: Tom Lush (Liberal)
The Straits White Bay North: Trevor Taylor (PC)
Topsail: Ralph Wiseman (Liberal) (Under this scenario Beth Marshall would still be the Auditor General and unable to run)
Torngat Mountains: Wally Andersen (Liberal)
Trinity Bay De Verde: Lloyd Snow (Liberal)
Trinity North: Ross Wiseman (PC)
Twillingate and Fogo: Gerry Reid (Liberal)
Virginia Waters: Kathy Dunderdale (PC)
Waterford Valley: Harvey Hodder (PC)
Windsor Springdale: Ray Hunter (PC)
So here are the results, as I predicted, for an election under John Efford for the Liberals: PC:
28 Liberal: 18 NDP: 2
So it still would have been a PC majority but I think Efford would have rallied the troops a bit more to give the party a better result and the foundation for the future better than what Roger Grimes did. As we approach the 11 year anniversary of that fateful day in February 2001 you have to think the Liberals regret that decision to this day.
The author of this blog appreciates any and all comments to his blog, he can be reached by email at tducey1@gmail.com.
